By Joe Vitale, GabelliConnect Freelance Writer
Using the economies of Greece, China and the United States as examples, a Fordham University Gabelli School of Business graduate and global banker gave business students a primer on how upcoming financial decisions in each country will cause ripples throughout the world.
Michael Guarnieri, GSB ’87, said he was not an expert on every country’s economy, but he drew on global trends to recommend how the world economy should move forward.
“We have this very complex global economy,” said Guarnieri, the global head of flow credit at Nomura, Japan’s global investment bank. “It is all linked.”
A segment of the presentation, which took place last week in the Moot Court room at the Law School building at Lincoln Center as part of the Gabelli School’s International Business Week, was dedicated to the debt crisis in Greece and its impact on the Eurozone.
From an economic standpoint, Guarnieri saw the Eurozone’s structure as detrimental to its own success. Without common laws and governments across the zone, instituting effective economy policy can be difficult.
“The reason it works in the U.S. is that we have common federal laws and common currency, and they don’t have that in Europe,” he said.
After weighing debt reduction in Greece, he asked: “But if you do that and you conceded, who will be next in line?”
Guarnieri also spoke about possible interest-rate hikes to be instituted by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
“Our view is that they in fact will [be raised] this year, but maybe only once,” he said. Impressive employment numbers, however, may affect when rates are raised, he suggested.
Still, he said, some countries would not be able to recover with economic reform alone.
With social issues plaguing many countries, Guarnieri contested, domestic reform is a necessary step for many countries with ailing economies.
“They have huge social issues and an aging population,” he said of China, which has the world’s largest population and the largest economy.
Others challenges — such as restrictive labor laws and a lack of private industry — also must be addressed with social reform, he said.
Polina Golnikova, GSB ’17, traveled from Rose Hill to attend the event at the Law School.
“It was a fascinating insight into the business world,” she said of the event. “The presentation was very interesting.”
Before closing, Guarnieri took a moment to provide some advice for young investment bankers.
“I think you have to pay attention to all of these developments. They have implications on whether you get into financial services or not,” he said, before suggesting students consider their education and training with a “global lens” in mind.